Valuation Methods, LP Needs and Equity Deal Structures for Startups
Part A: Other than through the use of the Comparables Method, describe how you might go about valuing each of these companies. What information would you need? What challenges will you face? Address each firm separately and support your choice of method of valuation.
HealthTech: Venture Capital Method
It is an unprofitable start-up with negative, volatile cash flows and few comparables, so a DCF is unreliable. The VC Method values the firm at a future date when it is profitable (terminal value via growth or a multiple). It then discounts that value back at a high target rate (40–75%) and adjusts for future dilution.
Info needed: when it turns profitable, expected earnings at that date, exit multiple or growth rate, target return, future financing rounds.
Challenges: subjective terminal value, a discount rate with no theoretical basis, and very uncertain timing (clinical and regulatory risk).
Faux-GAP: Adjusted Present Value (APV)
As an LBO, its capital structure changes as debt is repaid, and it may have NOLs. APV handles both, unlike WACC. Its NYSE history since 2003 provides reliable data. Discount FCF at the cost of equity, then add the PV of tax shields (interest + NOLs) at the cost of debt.
Info needed: FCF, growth rate, debt schedule, interest and NOLs, cost of equity (CAPM) and cost of debt.
Challenges: complex, less familiar than NPV, and highly sensitive to inputs. A turnaround is hard to forecast.
Part B: If Suave’s Fund IX had Foundations, Endowments and State Pensions as their LPs, what unique needs would each of these LP-types have regarding proper valuation of the portfolio companies inside the Suave IX Fund?
Foundations: must distribute about 5% of assets yearly. Wrong valuations lead to over- or under-distributing.
Endowments: set operating budgets from asset size. Wrong valuations lead to over- or under-spending.
State pensions: are legally required to report valuations, so they need consistent, defensible Fair Value figures.
Part C: Suppose that Suave finds that an average publicly traded Retail Clothing firm has a Value-to-Revenue multiple of 10x. If Faux-Gap’s expected revenue is $20 million this year, what is a reasonable estimate of Faux-Gap’s value?
V / Revenue = 10× → V = 10 × $20M = $200 million
Part A: What are the dangers of accepting this equity structure offer?
No control: the owners keep 70% and decide alone. Like Susan in Greenwave, they could sell the firm to a “Bob” below its intrinsic value and gain at your expense.
No preference: common stock is paid last in a sale or liquidation, so you may not even recover your $8M.
Paying everything up front: $8M for 30% implies a post-money value of about $26.7M. You are paying for “future possibilities” without staged financing, and the founders never have to prove they can create value. There is no vesting either.
Dilution: future rounds reduce your 30%.
Illiquidity/exit risk: there is no redemption right and no guaranteed exit, so the firm could become “living dead”.
Part B: Describe 3 other equity structures that you might counter-offer to the owners of Emerald that would possibly better protect your investment.
Redeemable Preferred Stock (+ cheap common): paid face value ($8M) before common holders, and must be redeemed at an IPO or within 5–8 years. Protection: you recover your money first. Adding common stock or warrants gives you upside too.
Convertible Preferred Stock: in a sale you choose between face value and converting to common. Conversion is mandatory at an IPO. Protection: below-value sale → take the $8M; above-value sale → convert and share the gain.
Participating Convertible Preferred: in a private sale you get face value and your common share. It converts to common at an IPO. Protection: the strongest downside protection in a private sale, while staying acceptable to founders and IPO markets.
Part C: Other than the type of equity structure, identify three (3) other elements of the investment deal that you might try to negotiate with Emerald. Describe how each element would sweeten your deal.
Ratchets (anti-dilution): in a down round your stake is topped up. A full ratchet keeps your original %, and a partial ratchet gives less protection.
Supermajority voting / restrictive covenants: key decisions, such as selling the company or issuing new shares, need your approval. This fixes the 30% control problem.
Vesting of founders’ shares + staged financing: the founders earn their equity over time, and you invest the $8M in tranches tied to milestones, so you don’t pay everything up front.
1. Two ways to write down a Fund’s value:
(a) Create a reserve against the fund as a whole, although LPs then can’t tell how much belongs to each company. (b) Directly adjust the fund’s value down.
2. Why GPs hesitate to write down:
- It lowers the fund’s IRR and multiples, which hurts the track record and makes LPs less likely to invest in the next fund.
- They believe the drop is temporary and the company is still viable long term.
- They have “fallen in love” with the company or don’t want to admit mistakes, from pride or because new partners are up for promotion.
3. Required ownership now
Suppose you want to own 15% of a company when it eventually goes public. Between now and the expected IPO date, you think that there will most likely be two more rounds of equity financing, each issuing 10% of the respective equity of the firm at the time. If you do not participate in these future rounds of financing and have no other anti-dilution provisions, what percentage of the firm should you negotiate to own NOW, in order to achieve your eventual goal of 15% ownership?
Two rounds of 10% each:
RR = 1/1.10 × 1/1.10 = 1/1.21 = 0.8264
Required current % = 15% / 0.8264 = ≈ 18.15%
4. Three IPO decisions for the Dutch firm (as in EMGS)
- When to go public: is the IPO window “hot”, and is the company’s track record of profits long enough?
- How much to raise and at what valuation: which method the banks will use (DCF, comparables), and what price per share.
- Where to list: the home exchange (Euronext Amsterdam) or the U.S. (NYSE/Nasdaq). Weigh liquidity, ability to raise capital, cost, management’s comfort zone, analyst coverage and accounting rules.
5. Real options: what is “real option” valuation? Why isn’t it more popular among those in the private equity world?
They use option-pricing models (Black-Scholes, binomial) to value future flexibility, such as expanding, delaying or abandoning, which a static DCF ignores.
Not popular because: they are complex and poorly understood, some situations can’t be modeled, and the models’ assumptions rarely fit private companies.
6. RPS before an IPO
Suppose that you are an investment banker who is giving advice to a start-up firm that is about to raise its first round of capital. It hopes to eventually go public through an IPO within the next five years. The firm suggests using redeemable preferred stock for its first round of financing. From the viewpoint of an investment banker, what is your main concern about the start-up firm using this type of security for its financing? How could you adjust the equity terms being considered in order to eliminate this concern?
Concern: RPS must be paid off before common holders and redeemed at the IPO, so much of the IPO proceeds would go to preferred investors instead of funding growth. IPO markets dislike this.
Fix: use Convertible or Participating Convertible Preferred with mandatory conversion into common at the IPO. Investors stay protected in a private sale, and at the IPO everything becomes plain common.
