The Geopolitical Evolution of the Modern Middle East
1. The Creation of the Middle East
The concept of the “Middle East” does not describe an unchanging geographical region, but rather a political and strategic construction which emerged gradually over the last two centuries. The term was formally coined in 1902 by the American naval historian Alfred Thayer Mahan, although it was already common in late 19th-century European strategic thinking. British officers originally used it to describe the lands between Europe and India, which was considered the “jewel” of the British Empire. Therefore, this definition is more political than cultural, reflecting the borders of modern states and imperial interests over ancient civilizations.
The sources suggest that this transition to “modernity” in the region entailed a radical change: moving from fluid imperial systems to a new type of political order characterized by:
- Centralized states
- Fixed borders
- Written laws
- Bureaucracies
- Standing armies
This process was the result of a mix of internal reforms, crises, foreign pressures, and ideological debates. Understanding this origin is vital, as many current tensions in International Relations (IR) are rooted in how this political authority was defined just two centuries ago.
2. The Fall of the Ottoman Empire
Around 1900, the Ottoman Empire stretched from Anatolia to Mesopotamia and parts of the Arabian Peninsula, but it was facing a profound crisis. European diplomats nicknamed it the “sick man of Europe,” a label that sources suggest was not only an objective diagnosis of its tax insolvency and loss of territory, but also a political narrative to justify foreign intervention.
Despite modernization efforts such as the Tanzimat and the Young Turk Revolution of 1908, the fatal decision was to join the Central Powers in World War I in October 1914. This election transformed the region into a devastating theater of war. The final defeat in 1918 and the subsequent Armistice of Mudros signified not only the loss of an empire but also the end of a centuries-old political and religious system. The abolition of the sultanate (1922) and the caliphate (1924) represented a dramatic rupture that left a power vacuum, giving rise to ideas such as territorial nationalism and Pan-Arabism.
3. The Arab-Israeli Conflict
Sources emphasize that this conflict is a product of modern politics and not a timeless religious war. Its formative phase began in the late 19th century with the rise of Zionism in Europe as a response to antisemitism. Figures such as Theodor Herzl articulated that the “Jewish question” was a political problem requiring a sovereign state in Palestine.
At the beginning of the 20th century, Palestine had an Arab majority (90% in 1850) coexisting with a small Jewish minority. However, the arrival of politically motivated Jewish immigration and the purchase of land altered this balance. The 1948 War, triggered by the UN partition plan, ended with an Israeli victory and the Nakba (the displacement of 700,000 Palestinians). This event institutionalized the conflict, transforming it from a struggle for statehood into a long-term regional dispute based on collective traumas.
4. The Peace Process and the Role of Iran
The peace process, whose milestone was the Oslo Accords (1993), was designed under the logic of incrementalism. However, Oslo did not create a state, but a provisional regime of partial autonomy which fragmented Palestinian territory. This allowed the “facts on the ground” to change through the expansion of Israeli settlements, eroding the credibility of the two-state solution.
In this stalemate, Iran emerges as a central protagonist due to its total opposition to Israel. Following the 1979 Revolution, Iran built the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of alliances with groups like Hezbollah and militias in Iraq and Syria to expand its influence and deter military pressure.
5. Iran and the Chaos of the Resistance
Iran projects its power through a network of strategic allies:
- Lebanon: Hezbollah acts as an influential political party and armed militia.
- Syria and Iraq: Tehran supports multiple pro-Iranian militias sponsored by the Revolutionary Guard.
- Gaza Strip: Iran provides support to Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
- Yemen: The Houthi rebels threaten access to the Suez Canal.
Complementing this, Iran’s missile arsenal (Shahab-3, Sajjil, and Fateh types) enables active deterrence, allowing Iran to influence multiple fronts simultaneously without direct military intervention.
6. Shia Political System
Iran’s political system changed radically with the Islamic Revolution of 1979. This system is unique because it combines elected republican institutions with a supreme religious authority. The Supreme Leader is a religious scholar who has the final say on all state policies based on Islamic law (Sharia). The Iran-Iraq-Iran War (1980-1988) was fundamental in consolidating this system, strengthening security institutions such as the Revolutionary Guard.
7. The Six-Day War
Occurring in June 1967, this was a radical turning point. Israel launched a preemptive strike, capturing the Sinai Peninsula, Gaza, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. The victory shattered Nasser’s Pan-Arabism and led to the rise of the Palestinian national movement (PLO). The dispute over these territories remains at the heart of regional instability.
8. UN Resolution 242
Adopted on November 22, 1967, Resolution 242 is the fundamental diplomatic framework for the conflict. It emphasizes the “inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war” and seeks a “just and lasting peace” based on:
- Withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from occupied territories.
- Termination of all states of belligerency and recognition of sovereignty.
It remains the basis of the “land for peace” concept.
9. The Sinai Peninsula: Two Wars
- Suez War (1956): Israel invaded the Sinai following Nasser’s nationalization of the canal. Israel was forced to withdraw in 1957, turning Nasser into a hero of Pan-Arabism.
- Six-Day War (1967): Israel occupied the entire Sinai Peninsula. This occupation transformed the conflict, as Israel used the Sinai as a strategic bargaining chip that eventually enabled peace diplomacy.