Geopolitics: African Growth and Middle Eastern Conflict

Posted on May 14, 2026 in Geography

Legacies and Governance in Modern Africa

Africa isn’t poor because it’s Africa. It’s poor because it carries three destructive legacies (slavery, colonization, and corruption), but the decisive factor today is governance: countries with strong institutions thrive (such as Rwanda and Botswana), while countries without them collapse (such as the DRC and Nigeria).

Slavery: The Structural Shock

• Catastrophic demographic loss: The loss of people in their most productive years halted agricultural innovation.
• While Europe was industrializing, Africa was losing its population.
• Destroyed social capital: This fostered distrust and violence between communities, eroding the trust needed for strong institutions.

Colonization: Extractive Models

• “Enclave state” model: Minimal social investment, focused only on protecting export routes.
• Inherited infrastructure: Ports and railways do not connect internal markets; they connect extraction points to the outside world, creating permanent economic dependency.
• Berlin Conference of 1884: This drew artificial borders that divided ethnic groups or forced rivals to coexist, leading to current political instability (e.g., Sudan).

Post-Colonial Structural Problems

• Systemic corruption: Often called a “tax on poverty,” it drains resources that should go to health and education.
• The “Resource Curse”: If a government has oil, it doesn’t need taxes; therefore, it’s not accountable to its citizens, resulting in a broken social contract.

Governance: The Decisive Variable Today

Countries with similar resources often see opposite outcomes depending on their institutions:

• Rwanda: Stability and economic progress.
• DRC (Democratic Republic of the Congo): Chaos due to weak governance.
• Botswana: Success derived from transparent institutions.
• Nigeria: Failure despite vast resources.
• Central thesis: Transparent institutions and accountability are the only tools to overcome the colonial past.

The Power Structure of Modern Iran

Khamenei is the second Supreme Leader of Iran (the first was Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 Revolution). He has been ruling since 1989 and has turned the position into the absolute center of Iranian power. His doctrine focuses on independence from the West, regional influence, and nuclear deterrence.

Foundations Inherited from Khomeini

• 1979 Revolution: Overthrew the Pahlavi monarchy.
• Doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih: (“Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist”) states that ultimate political authority lies with a high-ranking cleric.
• Religious legitimacy is placed above electoral legitimacy.

Biography of Khamenei

• Born in Mashhad (a holy city).
• A direct disciple of Khomeini.
• Served as President during the Iran-Iraq War (1981–1989).
• Became Supreme Leader in 1989 (a controversial appointment because he initially lacked the highest clerical rank).

Institutions Under Total Control

Foreign Policy and Internal Pressure

1. Strategic autonomy from the West: Especially regarding the United States.
2. Regional influence: The “Axis of Resistance” (Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria).
3. Nuclear deterrence: Allowed the JCPOA 2015 but remained skeptical.

Social Pressure and Internal Protests

• 2009 Green Movement: Protests over election results.
• 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom”: Protests after Mahsa Amini’s death.
• Causes: Political restrictions and an economy crushed by sanctions.

The Legacy: Two Interpretations

• Supporters: Argue he preserved regime stability and resisted external pressure.
• Critics: Point to political repression, economic isolation, and prolonged global tensions.

Somalia: Challenges of a Fragile State

Somalia is often cited as the failed state par excellence. Located in the Horn of Africa, it possesses the longest coastline of mainland Africa. After Siad Barre’s dictatorship collapsed in 1991, it sank into civil war. Today, it is de facto split into three zones, suffers from brutal climate change, and became famous for piracy between 2008 and 2012.

Geography and Colonial Origin

• Horn of Africa: A highly strategic zone.
• Colonial division: The North was controlled by the United Kingdom, while the South was controlled by Italy.
• Independence (1960): Unification was complicated by these two different colonial heritages.

Siad Barre’s Dictatorship (1969–1991)

• Ideology: “Scientific socialism.”
• Modernization: Literacy campaigns and infrastructure development.
• Fall: Caused by political repression and clan favoritism, leading to a total collapse and civil war in 1991.

De Facto Fragmentation: Three Regions

Climate and Humanitarian Crisis

Somalia is one of the countries most affected by climate change, suffering from a destructive cycle of prolonged droughts followed by sudden floods that the dry soil cannot absorb. Millions of internally displaced people depend on the WFP, UNICEF, and UNHCR.

The History of Piracy (2008–2012)

At its peak, piracy threatened 12% of global trade in the Gulf of Aden. There were three main causes (this will be on the exam):

1. State collapse: No coast guard to protect waters.
2. Extreme poverty: Lack of economic alternatives.
3. Illegal foreign fishing: Destroyed local livelihoods.

The famous case of the Maersk Alabama inspired the film Captain Phillips. Piracy was reduced through international naval patrols like Operation Atalanta, though a resurgence in 2023 shows that root causes remain unresolved.

The Syrian Conflict and the Assad Dynasty

Syria transitioned from post-independence instability (1946) to a family dictatorship under the Assads. In 2011, the Arab Spring triggered a brutal civil war. By 2026, a transitional government exists, but the country remains destroyed.

Hafez al-Assad (1970–2000)

Hafez al-Assad ruled for 30 years through the Ba’ath Party, utilizing strong repression, a personality cult, and the dominance of the Alawite minority. Despite the lack of freedom, there was relative stability and basic infrastructure development.

Bashar al-Assad (2000–2024)

Bashar succeeded his father through a rapid constitutional amendment. Initially seen as a reformer during the “Damascus Spring,” he soon continued the authoritarian system of his father.

The Civil War and Global Actors

The conflict was triggered in 2011 by the arrest of teenagers in Daraa. Peaceful protests were met with extreme violence, leading to war. The main actors include:

Consequences and the 2026 Situation

The war resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of refugees. As of 2026, most of the population lives in poverty under a transitional government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa. The country remains fragmented, with Idlib controlled by the opposition and the Northeast controlled by Kurds.

Urbanization and Migration Trends in Africa

Africa is experiencing the fastest urbanization process in history. This is driven by a population boom—where mortality has fallen while fertility remains high—and a lack of rural opportunities exacerbated by climate change and desertification in the Sahel.

Cities offer the promise of education and technology, such as the “Silicon Savannah” in Nairobi. However, growth is often unplanned; over 60% of urban residents live in informal settlements. This creates a dominant informal economy where young people survive in unregulated jobs, sometimes leading to social frustration.

Approximately 80% of African migration takes place within the continent toward regional centers like Lagos or Johannesburg. When these cities cannot provide opportunities, many take desperate routes to Europe. Urbanization is a deep social transformation that challenges the governance of African states.

The Ottoman Millet System and Religious Autonomy

The Ottoman Empire remained stable for centuries thanks to the millet system. Rather than forcing cultural assimilation, the Empire recognized religious diversity and granted significant autonomy to non-Muslim communities.

Groups such as Jews, Greek Orthodox Christians, and Armenians functioned as autonomous communities. Their religious leaders acted as intermediaries with the Sultan. These communities managed their own civil matters—including marriage, inheritance, and education—according to their own religious laws. This decentralized approach reduced conflict and encouraged coexistence.

While this preserved cultural identities, it also laid the foundations for nationalism in the 19th and 20th centuries. Because these groups remained socially separate, they possessed the institutional structures needed to seek independence when Ottoman power eventually weakened.