Core Concepts in Logic, Cognitive Bias, and Epistemology
Logic and Argumentation
An argument is deductively valid when it is impossible for its conclusion to be false if its premises are true. If the premises provide complete support for the conclusion, the argument is valid, regardless of whether the premises themselves are true.
Common Logical Forms
- Modus Ponens (Affirming the Antecedent): If P, then Q. P is true; therefore, Q is true.
- Modus Tollens (Denying the Consequent): If P, then Q. Q is false; therefore, P is false.
Conversely, an argument is inductively strong when it is improbable, but not impossible, for the conclusion to be false given true premises. Inductive strength exists in degrees; more supporting evidence increases the strength of the argument.
Cognitive Biases and Fallacies
- Status Quo Bias: The tendency to prefer the current state of affairs over change.
- Sunk Cost Fallacy: Continuing a course of action due to previously invested resources, despite it being irrational to continue.
- Loss Aversion vs. Risk Aversion: Loss aversion is the preference to avoid losses over acquiring equivalent gains. Risk aversion is the tendency to pay a cost to avoid a risky outcome.
- Barnum Effect: The tendency to accept vague, general personality descriptions as highly accurate and tailored specifically to oneself.
- Subjective Validation: The process of assigning personal meaning to ambiguous statements to make them seem accurate.
Epistemology and Reality
Normative vs. Descriptive Facts
- Normative: Concerns what should be (ethics, ideals).
- Descriptive: Concerns what is (science, math).
Theories of Reality
- Direct Realism: We perceive mind-independent objects directly.
- Indirect Realism: We perceive representations of objects, not the objects themselves (the “veil of perception”).
- Subjectivism: Reality is created by individual thoughts.
- Social Constructivism: Reality is created by collective belief within a society.
- Conceptual Relativism: Reality is shaped by the concepts and paradigms we use to understand the world.
Skepticism and Information Environments
A skeptic applies scientific methods and reasoning to seek truth, avoiding beliefs based solely on desire. Common obstacles include:
- Confirmation Bias: Seeking information that supports existing beliefs.
- Filter Bubbles: Algorithmic personalization that excludes conflicting information.
- Echo Chambers: Environments where one only encounters reinforcing opinions.
Pattern Recognition and Memetics
Agenticity and Patternicity are the tendencies to perceive patterns and intentional agents in random data. While these traits helped early humans survive, they often lead to superstitious beliefs.
The Three Stances of Prediction
- Physical Stance: Predicting behavior based on physical laws.
- Design Stance: Predicting behavior based on the system’s intended purpose.
- Intentional Stance: Treating the system as an agent with beliefs and desires.
Memetics: A meme is a self-replicating idea. A mind virus is a harmful meme or memeplex (a group of reinforcing memes) that propagates false or destructive beliefs.