Understanding Systems and Resilience in a Changing World
Integrated Sustainability
Integrated sustainability uses an integrated systems approach to simultaneously address:
- Social Responsibility: Evaluating the direct or spillover effects of a decision on all stakeholders.
- Ecological Integrity: Maintaining healthy, biodiverse ecosystems that human well-being depends on.
- Value Creation: Economic value + social value.
Systems Thinking
Systems thinking identifies the interconnectedness and interdependent elements of dynamic systems.
What is a System?
A system is an interconnected set of elements coherently organized to achieve something. It consists of:
- Elements
- Interconnections
- Purpose/Function (The least obvious part of a system is often the most crucial determinant of its behavior).
Resilience
A resilient system can adapt to changes without losing the essential qualities that define what it is and what it does. Resilience involves:
- Adaptability
- Ability to transform
Resilience requires first deciding what is valued in a system.
Natural and Human Systems in Disasters
Natural Systems:
- Earth’s Atmosphere (Water + Carbon Cycle)
- Earth’s Interior (Plate Tectonics + Rock Cycle)
Human Systems:
- Urban Infrastructure (Electrical Grid, Storm & Wastewater Sewers, Water Supply)
- Navigation & Flood Control Structures (Levees, Dams, Seawalls)
- Economic Systems (Markets, Charities/Aid, Human Capital Development)
Public Goods
A public good is:
- Non-rival: One person using or consuming it does not prevent another person from using or consuming it.
- Non-excludable: You cannot prevent people from using or consuming it, whether they have paid for it or not.
Public goods are susceptible to the free-rider problem and are paid for by taxes. The optimal amount of a public good is where the marginal benefit of an extra unit of the good is equal to the marginal cost to produce that extra unit.
Market Failures
Market failures occur when the free market alone does not provide the optimal quantity of a good or service for society, so incentives are needed.
Disease Transmission
Cholera
Cholera is a bacterial infection spread through contaminated water.
General Disease Transmission
- Airborne
- Foodborne
- Contact
- Vectors
Influenza
Cold, dry conditions lead to better transmission. Four main types of flu (A, B, C) infect humans. Influenza A and B spread through airborne particles and contact.
Ebola
Ebola spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids. It can cause dehydration and organ failure.
Hepatitis A
Hepatitis A spreads through ingesting the virus, contact with contaminated food, blood, stool, or saliva.
Causes of Diseases
- Viruses (RNA/DNA strand + Proteins)
- Bacteria (Living organisms, single-celled)
- Parasites (Living, can be multi-celled)
E4 Framework
E4 stands for Environmental, Energy, Economic, and Equity.
Human Capital
Human capital refers to the knowledge, skills, and abilities, whether intellectual, physical, or social, that increase a person’s productivity.
Community Resilience Foundations
The foundations of community resilience include:
- People
- Systems Thinking
- Adaptability
- Transformability
- Sustainability
- Courage
Immunity
Innate Immunity
Innate immunity is the first line of defense, present from birth. It includes:
- Skin and body fluids as barriers
- Natural killer cells among white blood cells
Acquired Immunity
Acquired immunity develops after exposure to pathogens. It involves:
- B lymphocytes (antibody production)
- T lymphocytes (cell-mediated immunity)
Vaccines
Vaccines are important for developing immunity by simulating pathogen exposure, leading to the production of memory cells for a quicker response upon future encounters. The herd immunity threshold depends on the reproduction rate of the disease.
Positive Externalities
An externality is a benefit or cost in the production or consumption of a good that spills over to people who are not part of the market transaction – they are not the buyers or sellers, but they receive a benefit or incur a cost. A positive externality specifically refers to a spillover benefit. A good or service with positive externalities is always under-produced by the free market and therefore under-utilized in society without policy intervention (subsidizing producer + buyer (vouchers/rebates)).
System Thresholds
Crossing a system threshold occurs when a system changes so much that its purpose/function changes.
Complex Systems
Complex systems have many elements and are unpredictable.
General Resilience
Factors contributing to general resilience include:
- Diversity
- Resources
- High social capital
- Tight feedback loops
- Openness
- Modularity
- Culture of learning and experimentation
Risk Propeller
The risk propeller consists of:
- Hazard
- Vulnerability (propensity to be adversely affected)
- Exposure (Presence of people or assets)
Adaptation vs. Mitigation
Adaptation: Changing to live with changed circumstances.
Mitigation: Lessening the occurrence of the event.
Earth System
Wildfires
Wildfires burn accumulated energy from plant matter. The fire triangle consists of oxygen, heat, and fuel. Wildfires can be caused by power lines, poorly tended fires, arson, and lightning.
Cost-Benefit Analysis
The cost of reducing harm/risk is low for the first units of reduction, then gets more costly. The benefits of reducing harm/risk are high for the first units of reduction, then get lower.
Heat Waves
A heat wave is defined as three or more days in a row with temperatures greater than 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Humidity increases the feeling of temperature.
Urban Heat Island
An urban heat island is a measurable increase in ambient urban air temperatures resulting from the replacement of vegetation with buildings, roads (which have low albedo – incoming sunlight is absorbed, not reflected, then sunlight is radiated as heat), and other heat-absorbing infrastructure. This results in significant temperature differences between rural and urban areas. People of color and people living below the poverty line are disproportionately affected. Solutions include planting trees, green roofs, cool roofs, and cool pavements.
Signal-to-Noise Ratio
The signal-to-noise ratio is calculated as the change in mean temperature divided by the variability in temperature. In regions of less variable climate, such as the tropics, smaller amounts of warming are required to have an adverse effect on flora and fauna as they are well adapted to the local climate.
Carbon Capture Technology
Carbon capture technology aims to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Current economic system challenges include externalities, inequity of purchasing power, cooperation vs. competition, and technology and property rights.
Climate Migration
: workers will decide to move if the present value of the net benefits of moving are greater than zero. Younger more likely, lower costs of moving, valuing future more, Higher human capital benefit in location.
Water: has a higher specific latent heat of vaporization. Cycle: warming of air, uplift of air, cloud formation, release of latent heat. evaporation of water by the sun from Earth’s surface into atmosphere, water vapor cools and condenses into clouds, when clouds become too heavy they precipitate so rain happens, water collects in bodies of water.
Tornado: produced by supercell thunderstorms. form in unstable atmosphere. wind shear tilts the storm, separating the updraft and downdraft. Storm continues to strengthen into a supercell. Use Enhanced Fujita scale of intensity to measure. Supercell Thunderstorm Development: For a tornado to form, the parent thunderstorm, often a supercell, must have a rotating column of air (vortex) at its center. This vortex gets its start from the wind shear created by differing wind speeds and directions at various altitudes. Updrafts and Downdrafts: Within the thunderstorm, warm, humid air rises in updrafts, while cooler air descends in downdrafts, along with rain or hail. This vertical movement of air can cause the air within the thunderstorm to spin. Formation of the Tornado: The spinning air, initially horizontal, can become vertical due to the thunderstorm’s updraft. This vertical spinning column of air can extend downwards from the cloud base towards the ground. If it reaches the ground, it becomes a tornado. This transition can be facilitated by a combination of factors, including the merging of rotating air from the storm’s updraft with rotating air near the ground, which can be caused by wind gusts at the surface. The conservation of angular momentum then causes this air to spin faster as it is drawn inward, forming the tornado.
Supercell Thunderstorm Development: For a tornado to form, the parent thunderstorm, often a supercell, must have a rotating column of air (vortex) at its center. This vortex gets its start from the wind shear created by differing wind speeds and directions at various altitudes. Updrafts and Downdrafts: Within the thunderstorm, warm, humid air rises in updrafts, while cooler air descends in downdrafts, along with rain or hail. This vertical movement of air can cause the air within the thunderstorm to spin. Formation of the Tornado: The spinning air, initially horizontal, can become vertical due to the thunderstorm’s updraft. This vertical spinning column of air can extend downwards from the cloud base towards the ground. If it reaches the ground, it becomes a tornado. This transition can be facilitated by a combination of factors, including the merging of rotating air from the storm’s updraft with rotating air near the ground, which can be caused by wind gusts at the surface. The conservation of angular momentum then causes this air to spin faster as it is drawn inward, forming the tornado.