Understanding Key Economic Concepts and Their Implications
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GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Price 고정): Market value of all final goods produced within a country in a given period of time. Transfer Payment (Social Security Payment). Approach Method: 1. Expenditure Method (Y=C+I+G+X-M) 2. Production Method (Value-added Method) 3. Income Method (TR=π+TC). Econ Growth Rate: (Use Real GDP). GNP: GDP + 해외 수취 요소 소득 – 대외 지급 요소 소득 = GDP + 대외 순 수취 요소 소득. GNI: GNP + 교역 조건 변화에 따른 실질 무역 손익 (measure of well-being, 국민의 실질 purchasing power). Limitations of GDP: 1. Market Transaction X 2. Underground Economy 3. Per Capita GDP (only material well-being 반영, leisure, environmental value 반영 못함). Price Rose: (2013 Deflator – 2012 Defl) / (2012 Defl) * 100
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Price Level (Macro) ≠ Price (Micro). Price Index: Index designed to monitor change in price level. CPI: Consumer Price Index, (비교년도 Cost of Living) / (기준년도 Cost) * 100 Quantity 고정 (Fixed Basket) (core-inflation, 생활 물가지수). PPI: Producer Price Index. GDP Deflator: (2016 Nominal GDP) / (2016 Real GDP) * 100. Problems of CPI: 1. Substitution Bias (failure for CPI to take into account substitution effect) 2. Quality Change: 가격 그대로, 품질 향상일 때 실제는 가격 인하 효과, but 반영 X 3. Introduction of New Product: 신제품 출시되도 5년간 basket 고정, 반영 X. Core Inflation (Underlying Inflation): CPI – (곡물 제외 농산물 가격 (계란, 배추) + 석유 가격). Fisher Equation (effect): r ≒ N – π. (1 + N) / (1 + π) = 1 + r -> 1 + N = 1 + r + π + r * π (r * π ≒ 0). Fisher Hypothesis: N = 1 + π^e (π^e = 예상 inflation rate) -> 명목 이자율 정하는 방식. Indexed Contract: A contract that requires that a dollar amount be automatically corrected for inflation. NIR = Inf. Rate + RIR. Negative RIR: Because of inflation, the interest payment is not large enough to allow the lender to break even (maintain constant purchasing power compared to the day loan was made). CPI attempts to measure: The overall costs of the goods and services purchased by a typical consumer. Steps for CPI: Fix the Basket, Find the Prices, Compute Basket’s Cost, Choose base year, Compute index. RIR trying to measure: The interest rate adjusted for the effects of inflation. Inflation High -> Borrowers Gain, Low -> Lenders Gain.
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Y/P (Per Capita GDP): Y/L (Labor Productivity) * L/P (Constant) -> Labor Productivity를 높여야 됨. Y/L (Productivity): A(Tech) * f(K/L, N/L, H/L). Policy Increasing Productivity: 1. Increasing Physical Capital Investment ↑ -> K ↑ -> K/L ↑ -> Productivity ↑. Vicious Cycle of Poverty: low Y -> low saving -> low investment = low Y / Foreign Investment (direct, portfolio). 2. Increasing Human Capital. 3. Technological advance (property rights, infrastructure, regulation, tax rate, entrepreneurial spirit, free trade, population growth, social stability). Malthus Population Theory: 언젠가는 starve. Diminishing Returns to Physical Capital: Major Industry Nationalize -> Bad.
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Financial Market (Direct): Short-Run (money market): CD, CP, RP (만기 1년 이내) / Long-Run (capital market): Stock, Bond (만기 1년 이상). Financial Intermediary (Indirect): bank, mutual fund. Bond: (채무 증서) 국공채, 회사채, 금융채. Maturity (상환 X -> 부도). Credit Rating (High Risk -> High Return). Stock: Claim to partial ownership for a corporation. Listing: 우량 기업만, 장점: 자금 조달 용이 / 단점: M&A (인수합병) 취약 / 비상장 기업: 주식 거래가 힘들다. PER (Price-Earnings Ratio): 1주당 순이익 = (stock price) / (earnings per share). 현재 주가가 순이익에서 몇 배 더 높은 가격인가, 우리나라: 9, 10 (외국은 15) 낮다는 것 -> 높이 올라갈 가능성 있다! Saving = Y – C. Investment: 새로운 투자 가치를 사는 것. S = I (고전학파). S ≠ I (Keynes). 고전학파가 S = I -> ‘Loanable Funds Market’ Model: S = f(i) -> suppliers, I = f(i) -> demanders (graph). i의 조정으로 S와 I가 일치 (i = real interest rate) (가정: financial system consists only loanable funds market borrowers are all investors). Keynes S ≠ I: S = f(i) (i = income -> 저축은 국민소득에 의해 결정) I = f(expectations for future profitability) -> 저축은 소득의 변수, 투자는 미래 소득에 연관 = 저축의 역설; 저축을 늘리는 것이 오히려 안 좋다. 소비가 미덕. Role of Financial System: 1. Link lenders with borrowers thereby reduce transaction cost. 2. Provide means of managing risks. 미국 부채의 역사: 그 동안 재정적자 누적 -> 빚이 쌓임. 전쟁 때: T를 늘릴 수 없는 상황에서 G가 늘어남. T – G 계속 증가 -> 재정적자. 1980년대 – 전쟁을 하고 있지 않음에도 부채 많음. Reagan (1981~1988) Strong America 만들겠다고 소련과 군비 경쟁, 이후 Bush가 전쟁 일으켜서 빚 늘어남. 부채 많으면 뭐가 문제? 사람들이 국채를 발행해도 구입하지 않는다.