The Shifting Landscape of Global Power: From Unipolarity to Multipolarity

Posted on Sep 7, 2024 in Geography

1. The Changing World Order

1.1. Multipolarity of Power

The end of communism in 1991 brought a new world order, with the USA as the sole world superpower. Its hegemony is evident in:

  • The influence of its diplomacy.
  • The presence of its military around the world.
  • Its intervention in several conflicts since the 1990s.

However, the last decade has seen a tendency towards greater multipolarity due to opposition towards USA hegemony. Some emerging countries are establishing themselves on the international scene, experiencing political and economic growth. In the future, countries like China, India, and Brazil will be ready to compete with the USA.

1.2. The Problems of Today’s World Order

Democracies need to:

  • Find ways to provide equal opportunities to everyone.
  • Face the loss of faith in political parties and lack of interest in politics (evidenced by low participation rates in elections).

Authoritarian regimes still exist, and persecution, imprisonment, torture, and executions on the grounds of religion or race are common.

Areas of tension have multiplied since the end of the Cold War, particularly in Africa, the Near East, and Southeast Asia. There are frequent confrontations caused by territorial, political, economic, religious, or ethnic disagreements.

Types of Conflict:

  • Between neighboring countries: Examples include India and Pakistan, North Korea and South Korea, and Israel and the Arab countries.
  • Civil Wars: Examples include Yugoslavia, Rwanda, and Indonesia.

2. Key Players in the Global Landscape

2.1. The Domination of the USA

The USA remained the sole world power after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The US declared its intention to:

  • Defend peace, democracy, and freedom.
  • Redefine its strategic priorities (military presence), reducing it in Europe and increasing it in the Caribbean, the Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the Middle East to protect its oil reserves in the Persian Gulf.

Since 1990, the USA has been involved in a number of controversial military interventions. It has intervened to:

  • Defend its interests and influence: The Gulf War, the invasion of Afghanistan, and the invasion of Iraq.
  • Obey UN resolutions that seek to reestablish peace: Western Sahara, Mozambique, and Somalia.
  • Develop humanitarian missions: Yugoslavia, Haiti, and Rwanda.

2.2. The Economic Power of Japan

Japan is an important economic power, even though its growth has suffered since the 1990s due to:

  1. The competition of other Asian economies.
  2. The decline of its internal market.
  3. The situation of its banks, which suffered losses after being involved in risky financial operations.

Reasons for Japan’s prior growth:

  • Japan participates in international organizations like APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), which promotes free trade and economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific area.
  • Japan is a member of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations), which works to improve the social and economic development of its members and maintain peace and stability in the region.

Japan also claims certain islands it disputes with China, Russia, and South Korea. Its imperialistic past, which lasted until the end of the Second World War, explains its cold relations with these countries.

2.3. The Influence of the EU

The European Union is an economic world power and is ranked first in international commerce. It is allied to the USA, even though it has criticized some of its military interventions. The EU has regularly participated in UN peace missions.

However, Europe’s international political influence is weakened because its members are sometimes in disagreement. A common international policy would help to solve this problem.

3. The Rise of New Powers

3.1. The Development of the Russian Federation

After the dissolution of the USSR, Russia became a regional power. However, it retained most of its nuclear weapons, remained a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and was accepted into international organizations like the Group of Eight (G-8).

Russia underwent a process of transition to a democratic system, with its first democratic elections held in 1993. Leaders during this period included:

  • 1993-2000: Boris Yeltsin
  • 2000-2008: Vladimir Putin
  • 2008-2012: Dmitri Medvedev
  • 2012-2018: Vladimir Putin

Difficulties during this transition have been caused by:

  • The excessive political power of the president.
  • The corruption of certain power groups, which are backed by mafia-type organizations.

The economic transition to the capitalist system initially brought:

  • A fall in production.
  • A rise in inflation and unemployment.
  • A drop in the standard of living.
  • Greater social inequality.

The situation has improved since the beginning of the 21st century due to the export of oil and gas. This has helped Russia to:

  • Recover part of its international influence.
  • Have closer relations with China, India, the EU, and Iran.

3.2. Post-Communist Countries

The states that seceded from the USSR are in different situations, influenced by geographical factors, cultural factors, and their history with Russia.

  • Ukraine and Belarus: Political tensions exist between Russophile and pro-Western groups.
  • Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan: Ethnic tensions and disputes over borders are prevalent.
  • Central Asia (e.g., Kazakhstan): Authoritarian regimes remain in place.
  • Chechnya:
    1. Tried to gain its independence from Russia in 1991.
    2. The Russian army suppressed the revolt after a violent confrontation.
    3. Since then, pro-independence guerrillas have tried to undermine Russia’s control with terrorist attacks.
  • Countries in Central and Eastern Europe (East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia):
    • Adopted democracy and capitalism.
    • Economies are not as strong as other Western countries.
    • Some have joined the EU and NATO.
    • Tension exists with Russia due to its loss of influence in the area.
  • Yugoslavia:
    1. Dissolution of the communist regime in 1980.
    2. Ethnic and religious confrontations in Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia led to the Yugoslav Wars.
    3. The Dayton Treaty (1995) divided the territory into five independent states and Bosnia-Herzegovina into two federations.
    4. Points of friction remain, and in 2006 Montenegro proclaimed its independence from Serbia.
    5. Kosovo took the same path in 2008.

3.3. China: The Birth of a Great Power

After Mao Zedong, the People’s Republic of China was ruled by Deng Xiaoping (1978-1997). He promoted economic reforms known as “market socialism,” which combined communism with some elements of capitalism. These reforms included:

  1. Dismantling the communes.
  2. Distributing the land among the peasants.
  3. Allowing peasants to sell their own products.
  4. Encouraging the export of cheap products to foreign countries.
  5. Opening China to foreign trade and investments.

Xiaoping’s successors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, have followed the same policy. The result has been the spectacular growth of the Chinese GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and its exports.

Despite China becoming one of the greatest powers in the world:

  • Social inequality has grown.
  • Its political system is undemocratic.

Geopolitically, its main conflicts concern:

  • Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory.
  • Tibet, conquered by China in 1951, which has fought for independence led by the Dalai Lama.

3.4. The New Industrial Countries

South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan are known as the Asian tigers because they have achieved rapid industrial development. Since the 1970s, they have produced and exported electronic products at competitive prices due to their reduced production costs. However, from 1997-1998, they suffered from financial instability and competition from other countries in the region.

3.5. The Emergent Asian Powers

India enjoyed sustained growth from 1980, due to its:

  • Service industry.
  • IT sector.
  • Car manufacturing.
  • Pharmaceutical industries.

However, there are still serious internal and external conflicts due to ethnic and religious tensions in the province of Kashmir. After WWII and liberation from the British, the region’s leaders, who were Hindu, chose to join India despite the majority of the population being Muslim. This decision sparked conflicts with Pakistan that continue to this day.

Other Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, are undergoing a process of modernization, which has been helped by the economic profits of their exports.