Spain’s Population Dynamics: From Old Regime to Modern Era
The Old Demographic Regime
Until the late eighteenth century, both in Europe and in Spain, population dynamics were characterized by slow vegetative growth. Although there was a high number of births, this was offset by a high rate of mortality brought about by numerous and frequent wars, epidemics of diseases such as plague or smallpox, starvation, and, in general, the low standard of living of the population.
During this period, population growth was determined by agricultural production, so that in times of good harvests the population grew, but when crops were poor, hunger and disease increased, affecting a malnourished population more strongly.
The Demographic Transition
In Spain, the change in demographic regime brought about by the Industrial Revolution and the reduction of mortality due to advances in hygiene and health, acquired certain characteristics and lagged behind Europe. The durability of catastrophic mortality and periods of hunger did not allow the control of mortality until the late nineteenth century, which, together with the volume of migration overseas, left Spain as a country virtually empty.
It was not until the early twentieth century that the real demographic transition occurred: the control of mortality, with the introduction of sanitary measures such as vaccination against smallpox, and increased food production in the Spanish countryside, allowed a drastic reduction in mortality. A high birth rate was also maintained, which resulted in large population growth.
This natural growth was interrupted only by specific events such as the influenza epidemic of 1918 and the Civil War, which led to negative growth, while in postwar generations there was talk of “hollow generations”.
From the mid-twentieth century, mortality shrank while the birth rate, which had remained stagnant since the Civil War, began a process of growth, reaching very high values. The period from the late 1950s to the 1970s, known as the Spanish baby boom, was the moment of greatest population growth in the history of Spain.
The Modern Demographic Regime
The 1970s marked the end of the demographic transition in Spain, twenty years later than in other European countries.
From that moment, Spanish birth and fertility rates began to decline at a very fast pace. Mortality remained low, with only a slight increase due to the progressive aging of the population. Actual population growth remained constant during the 1970s and 1980s, thanks in large part to the influx of immigrants and the return of Spanish emigrants who had left during the 1960s to work in the countries of Western Europe.
Since then, the Spanish fertility rate has decreased significantly, reaching stagnant or even negative growth by the late 1990s.
Currently, the average rate of natural increase is small: just 0.1%. This is due to two factors:
- The declining birth rate and fertility as a result of the massive incorporation of women into the labor market, the spread of contraception, and delayed marriage and childbearing until age 30, is the lowest in the EU and one of the five lowest in the world, and does not ensure generational replacement.
- The increase in life expectancy at birth, one of the highest in the world (76 years for males and 82 years for women), is due to reduced mortality (8.9%).