Middle East Geopolitics: History, Conflict, and Power
1. The Creation of the Middle East
The concept of the ‘Middle East’ does not refer to a natural geographic region but rather to a political and strategic construction developed by Western powers. The term was popularized in 1902 by the American naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan. For the British Empire, the region was mainly important because it represented the strategic route between Europe and India, the most valuable colony of the empire.
The emergence of the Middle East as a political region coincided with the decline of the Ottoman Empire and the rise of European imperial influence. The creation of modern states after World War I transformed imperial territories into nation-states with fixed borders, centralized administrations, and modern armies.
Because these borders were often drawn by colonial powers rather than local populations, many states faced problems of legitimacy and identity. These structural tensions explain many of the political conflicts that still affect the region today.
2. The Fall of the Ottoman Empire
At the beginning of the twentieth century, the Ottoman Empire controlled large territories across the Middle East. However, the empire faced severe economic weakness, political instability, and military defeats against European powers. These problems led many European diplomats to describe it as the ‘Sick Man of Europe.’
Despite attempts at reform, such as the Tanzimat modernization policies and the Young Turk Movement, the empire struggled to maintain control over its territories. The decisive moment came in 1914 when the Ottoman leadership joined the Central Powers during World War I.
After the defeat of the Central Powers in 1918, the Ottoman Empire collapsed, and its territories were divided between European colonial powers under the Mandate System. The abolition of the Caliphate in 1924 marked the end of a political and religious institution that had existed for centuries.
3. The Arab-Israeli Conflict
The Arab-Israeli conflict emerged from the clash between Jewish Zionism and Arab nationalism in Palestine during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Zionism developed in Europe as a response to anti-Semitism and argued that Jews needed their own sovereign state.
At the same time, Palestine was inhabited mostly by Arab communities who also developed nationalist aspirations during the decline of the Ottoman Empire. Jewish immigration and land purchases gradually altered the demographic balance of the region.
Tensions increased during the British Mandate period and eventually erupted into war in 1948 following the United Nations Partition Plan. The war resulted in the creation of Israel and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, an event known as the Nakba.
4. The Middle East Peace Process
The Middle East peace process refers to diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. One of the most significant attempts was the Oslo Accords of 1993, which established mutual recognition between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization.
The agreement created the Palestinian Authority and introduced a gradual approach to peace negotiations. Instead of solving the conflict immediately, it postponed key issues such as borders, refugees, and the status of Jerusalem.
Although Oslo initially generated optimism, the continuation of violence and settlement expansion weakened trust between the parties. As a result, the peace process stalled and failed to produce a final political settlement.
5. Iran and the Axis of Resistance
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Iran has developed a regional strategy based on alliances with governments and armed groups that oppose Western influence and Israel. This network is often described as the ‘Axis of Resistance.’
It includes:
- Hezbollah in Lebanon
- Various Shia militias in Iraq
- The Syrian government
- Movements such as Hamas and the Houthis
Through these alliances, Iran projects power beyond its borders without relying solely on conventional military force.
This strategy emerged after the Iran-Iraq War when Iranian leaders realized the importance of building regional partnerships. The system allows Iran to maintain ‘strategic depth,’ meaning that conflicts can be managed far from Iranian territory.
6. The Shia Political System
The political system of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on the concept of ‘Velayat-e Faqih,’ or guardianship of the Islamic jurist. According to this doctrine, political authority should be guided by religious scholars who ensure that government policies follow Islamic principles.
This system combines elements of republican governance with strong clerical supervision. Institutions such as the presidency and parliament are elected, but their authority is limited by bodies like the Guardian Council.
The Supreme Leader occupies the highest position within this system and holds ultimate authority over military, political, and strategic decisions.
7. Iranian Ideology and Israel
The Islamic Republic of Iran maintains a strong ideological opposition to Israel, often referring to it as the ‘Zionist entity.’ This rhetoric is rooted in the revolutionary ideology that emerged after the 1979 revolution.
Iranian leaders view Israel as a symbol of Western influence in the Middle East and as a political project imposed on Muslim lands. This perception has shaped Iran’s regional policies and alliances.
Support for groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas reflects Iran’s attempt to challenge Israeli power and expand its influence in regional politics.
8. The Balfour Declaration
The Balfour Declaration was issued in 1917 by British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour. In this letter, the British government expressed support for the establishment of a Jewish national home in Palestine.
However, the declaration was deliberately ambiguous and did not clearly define the political implications of this support. It also stated that the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities should not be harmed.
Because the majority of the population in Palestine at the time was Arab, many Palestinians interpreted the declaration as a betrayal. The document therefore became one of the key origins of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
9. UN Resolution 242
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After the Six-Day War in 1967, Israel gained control of several territories including the West Bank, Gaza, the Sinai Peninsula, and the Golan Heights. This situation created a major diplomatic crisis in the international community.
In response, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 242. The resolution emphasized the principle that territory cannot be acquired through war and called for Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories.
At the same time, it recognized the right of all states in the region to live in peace within secure borders. The principle of ‘land for peace’ became the foundation for future diplomatic negotiations.
10. The Oslo Accords
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The Oslo Accords of 1993 represented a major attempt to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through negotiations. The agreement established mutual recognition between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization.
Instead of creating a Palestinian state immediately, the West Bank was divided into three administrative zones:
- Area A
- Area B
- Area C
Each area had different levels of Israeli and Palestinian control. This arrangement created a fragmented territorial structure that complicated the creation of a viable Palestinian state. The temporary nature of the agreement gradually turned into a long-term political reality.
12. The Iranian Revolution
The Iranian Revolution of 1979 overthrew the monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and established an Islamic Republic. The revolution was driven by widespread dissatisfaction with authoritarian rule, economic inequality, and Western influence.
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini emerged as the central leader of the revolutionary movement. His vision transformed Iran into a state governed according to Islamic principles.
The revolution had major regional consequences, inspiring Islamist movements and reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East.
13. Iranian Regional Influence
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Iran has expanded its regional influence through alliances with both governments and non-state actors. These partnerships form a network that extends across several Middle Eastern countries.
Through support for groups such as Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Syrian forces, Iran has established a corridor of influence reaching the Mediterranean. This network strengthens Iran’s geopolitical position.
Additionally, support for groups in Gaza and Yemen allows Iran to exert pressure in key strategic areas. This strategy combines ideological goals with pragmatic security considerations.