Middle East and Africa: Political History and Modern Shifts
End of World War I and the Ottoman Collapse
The end of the First World War completely transformed the Middle East. One of the most important events was the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916, a secret agreement between Britain and France in which both powers decided how to divide much of the Ottoman Empire’s Arab territories after the war. This agreement is often described as the “original sin” of the modern Middle East because the new borders were drawn without considering the ethnic, religious, and cultural realities of the region. As a result, different communities that had historical rivalries were forced to live within the same states, while other groups, such as the Kurds, were divided among several countries. These artificial borders created tensions that continue to influence the region today.
The Mandate System and French Rule
After the Ottoman Empire collapsed, the victorious powers established the mandate system under the League of Nations. Instead of granting immediate independence to the former Ottoman territories, Britain and France administered them as mandates. France received control of Syria and Lebanon between 1920 and 1946. In Syria, the French authorities followed a strategy of “divide and rule” by creating several separate political entities based on religious and ethnic identities, including:
- The Alawite State
- The Druze State
- The states of Aleppo and Damascus
The objective was to weaken Arab nationalism and prevent the emergence of a strong unified Syrian state. However, this policy generated resistance and contributed to major uprisings, particularly the Great Syrian Revolution of 1925–1927, led by Sultan al-Atrash.
The Millet System and State Building
Another important legacy of the Ottoman Empire was the millet system. Under this system, religious communities such as Jews, Greek Orthodox Christians, and Armenians were allowed to govern many of their own affairs, including education, family law, and religious institutions. This arrangement helped preserve the identities of these communities and allowed them a significant degree of autonomy. However, when the Ottoman Empire began to weaken, these separate identities became the basis for nationalist movements, contributing to political fragmentation and the rise of competing national projects.
The process of state building after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire varied from country to country. Egypt achieved a greater degree of stability because the military became the central political institution after the 1952 coup led by the Free Officers Movement. In contrast, Syria experienced chronic instability, with repeated military coups and political crises. This instability continued until the Ba’ath Party eventually consolidated power and established a more centralized authoritarian system.
The Arab-Israeli Conflict
The Arab-Israeli conflict has its origins in the final years of the British Mandate in Palestine. In 1947, the United Nations proposed a partition plan that would divide Palestine into two states: one Jewish and one Arab, while placing Jerusalem under international administration. The Jewish leadership accepted the proposal, but Arab leaders rejected it because they considered it unfair and opposed the creation of a Jewish state on Palestinian territory.
On 14 May 1948, Israel declared its independence. The following day, neighboring Arab countries, including Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, launched a military intervention against the new state. The war ended with an Israeli victory. Israel expanded its territory beyond what had been allocated by the UN partition plan, Jordan took control of the West Bank, and Egypt assumed control of the Gaza Strip.
The Nakba and the Green Line
One of the most significant consequences of the war was the Nakba, meaning “catastrophe” in Arabic. During the conflict, approximately 700,000 Palestinians became refugees, either fleeing or being displaced from their homes. The refugee issue became one of the central and most enduring aspects of the conflict. The war also resulted in the establishment of the Green Line, the ceasefire line agreed upon in 1949. Although it marked the end of hostilities, it was not recognized as an official international border. The Green Line nevertheless became the reference point for later negotiations and territorial disputes.
The importance of the 1948 war lies in the fact that it created the State of Israel while simultaneously generating the Palestinian refugee problem. Rather than resolving the conflict, the war laid the foundations for future confrontations, including the Six-Day War of 1967 and subsequent disputes that continue today.
Zionism and Territorial Slogans
A key concept in understanding the conflict is Zionism. Emerging in the late nineteenth century, Zionism was a Jewish nationalist movement that sought the creation of a homeland for the Jewish people in Palestine. Support for Zionism increased significantly due to anti-Semitism in Europe and especially after the Holocaust. However, Jewish immigration into Palestine came into direct conflict with Arab nationalism, as many Arabs opposed the establishment of a Jewish state in a territory they considered their homeland.
Another controversial issue is the slogan “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.” The phrase refers to the territory stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, encompassing Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. For many Palestinians, the slogan symbolizes liberation and self-determination across the whole territory. Many Israelis, however, interpret it as a call for the elimination of the State of Israel. Because of these different interpretations, the slogan remains highly contested.
The Arab Spring: A Crisis of Governance
The Arab Spring was a wave of protests and uprisings that spread across the Arab world beginning in 2011. At its core, it reflected a profound crisis of governance. Many Arab countries were characterized by authoritarian governments, limited political freedoms, corruption, manipulated elections, and a lack of economic opportunities. These problems were particularly severe for young people, who faced high unemployment and felt deprived of dignity and prospects for the future.
The immediate trigger occurred in Tunisia in December 2010. Mohamed Bouazizi, a young street vendor, set himself on fire after being humiliated by local authorities. His act sparked widespread protests that rapidly expanded across the country and eventually forced President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to flee. The Tunisian example inspired similar movements throughout the Arab world.
The Role of the Military in the Uprisings
The outcomes of the Arab Spring differed greatly depending on the role of the military. In Tunisia, the army remained neutral and refused to suppress the protesters. This allowed a relatively successful democratic transition. In Egypt, the military was a powerful and unified institution. It allowed President Hosni Mubarak to fall in order to preserve its own influence, but later reasserted control when Abdel Fattah al-Sisi came to power in 2013. In Syria, the army remained loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and responded to protests with extreme violence. What began as peaceful demonstrations eventually escalated into one of the most destructive civil wars of the twenty-first century.
The main lesson of the Arab Spring is that the fate of these uprisings depended less on the protesters themselves and more on the behavior of the armed forces. Where the military remained neutral, political change was possible. Where the military was strong and cohesive, it often managed to control or reverse the transition. Where it remained loyal to the regime, repression frequently led to prolonged conflict and civil war. The Arab Spring also exposed the weakness of state institutions in many countries and demonstrated how foreign intervention and regional rivalries often intensified existing conflicts.
Current Events in Syria (2024–2026)
A major turning point in Syria occurred in December 2024 with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime after a rapid offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Following this development, Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of HTS, emerged as the head of the transitional government. Since taking power, he has attempted to present himself as a moderate leader in order to gain international recognition and support. One of the main objectives of the new government is to integrate the various armed groups operating in Syria into a single national defense structure.
National Reconciliation and the Kurdish Question
Despite the fall of Assad, Syria faces enormous challenges. One of the most important is national reconciliation. The government must reassure minority groups, particularly Alawites and Christians, that they will not face persecution or revenge. This issue is especially sensitive because the Alawite minority, representing approximately 12 percent of the population, dominated the military and security apparatus during the Assad era.
The Kurdish question is another major challenge. Although preliminary agreements have been discussed regarding the integration of Kurdish-controlled territories and oil resources into the Syrian state, tensions remain high. Turkey strongly opposes any form of Kurdish autonomy near its borders, making the issue a source of regional instability.
Economic Devastation and Regional Geopolitics
The Syrian economy has also been devastated by years of conflict. The civil war caused more than 600,000 deaths and displaced around 12 million people. Rebuilding the country will require substantial financial assistance, particularly from Gulf states, as well as the easing or removal of Western sanctions. Regional geopolitics further complicate the situation:
- Russia seeks to maintain its military bases in Syria.
- Iran has lost an important strategic route connecting it to Hezbollah.
- Israel has expanded its control over a buffer zone in the Golan Heights.
- Turkey continues to exercise influence in northern Syria.
- The United States favors a pragmatic and transactional approach toward the new government.
The fall of Assad marked the end of more than five decades of rule by the Assad family. During those fifty-four years, the regime relied on authoritarian control, extensive security services, and repression, exemplified by events such as the Hama massacre of 1982.
Africa: Historical Foundations and Modern Challenges
Many of Africa’s contemporary challenges have deep historical roots. Geography has played a significant role in shaping development across the continent. Large areas of low population density, the prevalence of tropical diseases, and natural barriers such as the Sahara Desert have historically limited communication, trade, and state formation.
The impact of slavery and colonialism was equally profound. The Atlantic slave trade contributed to violence, instability, and demographic disruption in many regions. Later, during the colonial era, European powers divided Africa among themselves at the Berlin Conference without regard for existing ethnic, cultural, or political realities. This process created artificial borders that often separated communities or forced rival groups into the same states. Colonial infrastructure, including roads and railways, was largely designed to extract raw materials and transport them to European markets rather than to promote internal development.
Governance and Economic Development
Governance remains a critical factor in explaining Africa’s economic difficulties. According to the arguments associated with Mo Ibrahim, poor leadership and weak institutions are major obstacles to development. Nigeria provides an example of how dependence on oil revenues contributed to the decline of other sectors, transforming a country that was once largely food self-sufficient into one that imports significant quantities of food. By contrast, Botswana is often cited as a success story because its leaders used revenues from diamond exports to invest in education, healthcare, and public institutions. Corruption and illicit financial flows also represent a major challenge, with Africa losing an estimated 88 billion dollars annually through illegal transfers of wealth.
Demographics, Urbanization, and the Future
In the twenty-first century, demographic growth represents both an opportunity and a challenge. Africa has the youngest population in the world, which could become a powerful engine of economic growth if young people receive adequate education and employment opportunities. However, if these needs are not met, demographic pressure may contribute to migration, crime, political instability, or the recruitment of individuals by extremist groups.
Urbanization is another defining trend. African cities are growing at an unprecedented rate, with millions of people moving from rural areas in search of better opportunities. However, many urban centers struggle to provide housing, infrastructure, and public services. As a result, large numbers of people live in informal settlements, where poverty and social frustration can fuel instability. It is important to note that most African migration remains within the continent itself, with approximately 80 percent occurring between African countries.
Looking ahead, Africa’s future will depend largely on improving governance, strengthening institutions, and promoting regional economic integration through initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area. At the same time, new international actors, particularly China, have become increasingly influential through large-scale investments in infrastructure and development projects across the continent.