Key Concepts in Foresight Methodology
What are the basic elements of foresight methodology?
- A holistic view
- Creativity
- Participation and Cohesion
- Pre-eminence of process over product
- Convergence-divergence
- Purpose Construction
What are the major phases of foresight methodology development?
- Normative
- Definitional
- Strategic Confrontation and Feasibility
- Strategic Assessment and Feasibility
Within the normative phase, what are the two main moments?
The design of the desirable future and the logical profile of the future.
Which foresight phase includes the formation of the desired future?
Normative phase
Definitional Phase: What are its three basic elements?
- What is of primary interest (Focal Objective)
- What influences this (Environment)
- What the decision maker can achieve
In the confrontation phase, what questions are answered?
- What is the distance between the future and reality?
- How can they converge?
- What should be the profile for convergence between the prospective pole (ideal) and the situation (real)?
Which phase emphasizes strategic and feasibility determination?
This phase addresses questions such as:
- How to enable the future?
- How do I go about building the future?
- And which are the main ways of approaching it?
How are foresight methodological resources categorized?
- Subjective, informal, or qualitative techniques
- Objective, formal, or quantitative techniques
Common Foresight Methodological Techniques
Within the technical methodological approaches are those of the cross-impact matrix, force analysis, morphological analysis, Ariola, input-output, Delphi, Scenarios, technology assessment, TKJ, and simulation and projection models.
What are the objectives of morphological analysis?
To investigate the main components of a situation (problem) and consider possible alternatives for the solution.
Which technique has three major phases?
Ariola, structured into: information gathering, solution generation, and strategy generation.
Which technique uses progressive questionnaires?
Delphi, which involves obtaining relevant information by consulting experts using progressively designed questionnaires, thus excluding direct confrontation of participants.
Which technique involves a group building future images?
Scenarios, whose basic idea is that a group of participants cooperate in the construction of one or more images of the future.
Which technique combines expert judgment and formal studies?
Technology assessment, which can be considered mixed, as it embodies both the judgments and opinions of specialists, as well as formal and rigorous studies.
Which technique encourages convergence-divergence?
TKJ, which encourages a process of convergence-divergence as the group begins work on a wide range of opinions on the same subject until reaching an interactive synthetic view.