Global Drug Trafficking Patterns and Consequences

Drug Trafficking: Global Scope and Consumption Trends

Drug consumption has been a phenomenon proper of every human civilization since recorded history. Nowadays, the United Nations assesses in its 2015 Report that 1 out of 20 adults used at least one kind of drug in 2014. From these, over 29 million suffer from drug use disorder.

Among the drugs consumed in higher degrees, warranting detailed analysis, we find opiates, cocaine, cannabis, and synthetic drugs.

Drug Trafficking (II): Opiates

Opiates: Production and Markets

Main producers are found in South-West Asia (Afghanistan), although production also occurs in South-East Asia (Myanmar) and Latin America to a lesser degree. Afghanistan holds the largest cultivation area, accounting for 2/3 of the world’s surface, followed by Myanmar (20%) and Mexico (9%).

Global Production Dynamics

Global production fell in 2015 by 38% compared to 2014. Despite this dramatic fall, provoked by poor yields in Southern Afghanistan, the cultivation area decreased by only 11%. Punctual yearly falls seem to be compensated by surpluses from other years, resulting in a very volatile overall production pattern. In the long term, opium cultivation was still higher than in previous peaks of 1998 or 2007.

Breakdown by country:

• Afghanistan (70%)
• Myanmar (14%)
• Latin America, mostly Mexico (11%)

Global Market Trends

The global market has remained relatively stable with an upward trend. While consumption has declined in Western and Central Europe since the 1990s, it increased in North America and might be increasing in some markets of the former. Furthermore, consumption is emerging in the Post-Soviet Space and potentially increasing in Africa. It is important to note the sizable volume of poppy cultivated for domestic use, with India being the main example.

Trafficking Routes

The main route is the “Balkan Route”, linking South-Asia production to the European market. The “Southern Route” has grown in importance, connecting South-Asia to diverse world regions via sea and air traffic. The third route from South Asia is the “Northern Route”, connecting Afghanistan to the Post-Soviet Space. Other routes include the one connecting South-East Asia (The Golden Triangle) to China and Oceania, and the route linking Mexico to North America and Colombia to South America.

Drug Trafficking (III): Cocaine

Cocaine: Latin American Concentration

Cocaine production is mostly concentrated in Latin America. Colombia leads with 52% of world cultivation, followed by Peru (32%). Bolivia covers almost all the remaining space with 15% of the world’s global surface.

Global Production

The UN report showed a 10% increase in production for 2014. However, in the long term, compared to the 1980s peak, the cultivation area remains the second smallest: a 19% fall since 2009, 31% since 1998, and 40% lower than the 2000 peak. Manufacture levels are also 24–27% lower than the 2007 peak but similar to 1998 levels. This production increase, despite reduced cultivation area, is explained by the increasing efficiency of cocaine processing.

Global Market

Annual prevalence of cocaine consumption remained generally constant between 1998 and 2014. Main markets are North America and Europe. North America leads consumption, which has seen a clear decline (32% from 2006 to 2014). European consumption peaked in 2007 and has been declining since. Consumption remains highly unbalanced, with much of it concentrated in specific Western European countries above the average.

Trafficking Routes

Given production in South America and primary markets in the developed world, cocaine flows primarily towards North America and Europe.

• Route to North America: Almost entirely by land through Central America and Mexico, or directly to Mexico by sea, then by land. The Caribbean route accounts for some traffic (13%).
• Route to Europe: Normally starts in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, Argentina, and Costa Rica. Some volumes pass through Africa (10%) before reaching Europe. Main entry points in Europe are Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands.

Drug Trafficking (IV): Cannabis and Methamphetamines

Cannabis Distribution

In marked contrast to opiates and cocaine, cannabis cultivation is widely spread, occurring in as many as 129 countries. Key producers include Morocco, Afghanistan, Lebanon, India, and Pakistan.

Global Market

As of 2014, around 3.8% of the world population consumed cannabis. North America remains the main market, though consumption is lower than in the 1970s. Consumption exploded in Europe from the early 1990s, stabilized by the mid-2000s, slightly declined since 2009, and recovered ground in 2013 and 2014. Increased consumption has also been reported in Africa.

Legal Status

The great difference setting cannabis apart is that its use has become decriminalized to varying degrees in several countries, representing a general trend, even if most countries still impose restrictions or total bans.

Synthetic Drugs

Unlike the previous three drugs, synthetic drugs do not depend on plants for extraction; they are manufactured entirely in laboratories. Methamphetamine is the main item for consumption among these.

Global Production

A large volume of production is found in South-East Asia to feed local consumption, mirroring markets in East Asia and North America. In the Middle-East, most production is located in Lebanon and Syria.

Global Market

The main markets are located in North America, East Asia, and South-East Asia.

Trafficking Routes

Laboratory-based production facilitates local market supply. However, trans-border traffic exists, with methamphetamines smuggled from West Africa, North America, West Asia, East and South-East Asia. Europe and the Middle-East serve as main transit routes to other regions.

Drug Trafficking (V): Health and Vulnerable Collectives

The main and direct consequence of drug consumption is the impact on health, accompanied by indirect consequences like disease transmission.

• For 2013, almost 12 million lives were lost to drug abuse, with over 8 million caused by opiates. While the burden per 100,000 people suggests a “first world” burden, the impact on developing countries must not be underestimated.
• In the case of heroin, usually administered via injection, this carries the indirect effect of increasing disease transmission, especially HIV; it is estimated that 5–10% of people living with HIV inject drugs. Drug use accounts for 32% of hepatitis C-related cirrhosis risk factors.

Drug Trafficking (VI): Drugs and Economic Development (I)

Cross-Country High-Income Differences and Drug Use

The cost of production for each drug influences trafficking flow direction:

• The addition of costs along the production and distribution chain shows that the wholesale price of coca in Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia represented only 1% of the retail price in the USA! Similarly, profits related to opiates in Afghanistan amounted to only $357 million per year (2009–2012), while profits along the Balkan route reached as much as $28 billion.
• Drugs originating in confined areas with limited production and high prices, such as heroin and cocaine, flow towards rich countries whose citizens can afford them.
• Conversely, cannabis and methamphetamines, which are easier to grow or manufacture, are more available for local markets in developing countries without strong reliance on international traffic.
• Developing countries situated on major trafficking routes respond to this pattern to varying degrees.

High-priced drugs like heroin and cocaine may be widely used in developing countries where coca and poppy are grown, but often in unprocessed or very low-quality processed forms:

• Consumption levels of cocaine in North and South America are similar in prevalence. However, quantitatively, the difference is huge: in the North, it is consumed as salt; in the South, cocaine is consumed via coca leaves. When salt is consumed in the South, it is always in very impure (and therefore more dangerous) forms.
• Heroin must be consumed after some processing. Opiates consumed in India from local production are necessarily of lower quality than heroin transited from countries like Afghanistan or Myanmar, bound for First World markets.

Even if some drugs, like methamphetamines, are more available in developing countries, the technology for elaborate drugs developed first in developed nations. Thus, for synthetic drugs, consumption first appeared in developed countries, progressively seeping into developing nations.

Drug Trafficking (VII): Drugs and Economic Development (II)

Economic Development and Illicit Crop Cultivation

The link between development and drugs is evident in the motivations for cultivating drug-source plants:

• Illicit cultivation is usually practiced by low-income farmers in developing countries seeking to withstand poverty. This is the reason for poppy cultivation in Myanmar, where most earnings are used for food purchase.
• Poppy cultivation often occurs where few alternatives exist: in Myanmar, villages engaging in poppy cultivation were poorer than those that did not; in Afghanistan, poppy was cultivated in areas less connected to markets. The lesson suggests that greater development leads to less motivation for such cultivation.
• The case of Thailand corroborates this: the drastic reduction in cultivation (from 17,900 ha to 129 ha between the mid-1960s and mid-2000s) is clearly linked to economic development, although repression also played a role.
• However, there is no clear linear relationship. Development can also establish preconditions for thriving cultivation, as seen in South America where infrastructure modernization enabled cultivation in previously isolated regions.

Impact of Drugs on Economic Development

The impact ranges from creating an economy based on illicit activities to generating violence and corruption.

• While retail prices for cocaine and opiate profits along the traffic chain dwarf profits in producing countries, the impact on the economies of these producing countries is proportionally much bigger: 13% in Afghanistan (2014), 4.1% in Colombia (2009), compared to only 0.2% in the US and 0.36% in the UK (2009)! In Afghanistan, net inflows derived from drugs are offset by equivalent outflows (imports, capital flight).
• Most economic impact studies, conducted in developed countries, estimate costs ranging from 0.07% to 1.7% (health costs, prevention, law enforcement, loss of productivity, etc.).

Drug Trafficking (VIII): Drugs and Environmental Sustainability (I)

Drug trafficking impacts the environment through the deterioration caused by all its activities.

Deforestation

The main impact, caused by cultivation of poppy, coca, and cannabis, is deforestation, which can be direct or indirect:

• Direct Deforestation: Farmers in poor socioeconomic conditions often use unexploited forests for illicit cultivation, as they are forced into remote areas to escape control. This impact is qualified: in Colombia (2001–2006), only 5.3% of lost forest was attributable to drug cultivation (reduced to 1.2% in a 2001–2012 study).
• Indirect Deforestation: Illicit cultivation in remote areas can attract other population flows engaging in licit (e.g., logging, pasturage) or illicit activities. However, studies suggest causality might be reversed: development of remote areas drives deforestation, making illicit cultivation easier, rather than the cultivation driving deforestation.

Deforestation Through Drug Trafficking

Illicit cultivation is not the only element impacting deforestation:

• Deforestation due to drug traffic has been reported in Guatemala and Honduras (main route between North and South America) due to clearing for landing grounds, generating similar direct/indirect dynamics. Violence used by traffickers in areas like Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve is a factor.
• Generally, there appears to be a strong correlation between flows of drug traffic and deforestation (2004–2012).

Drug Trafficking (IX): Drugs and Environmental Sustainability (II)

Pollution and Water Depletion

Activities related to drug production cause substantial pollution, especially synthetic drugs using many chemical components:

• Clandestine laboratories for synthetic drugs are often in urban settings, meaning waste through sewage systems can highly impact inhabitants’ health.

Drug production also impacts water depletion:

• In Afghanistan, a very dry country, the Helmand region illustrates this: drought (1999–2001) combined with unsustainable irrigation reduced water flow along the lower Helmand river by up to 98%. Poppy cultivation strongly increases irrigation demand by hoarding existing water and making sophisticated extraction methods financially viable.

Consequences of Drug Eradication and Displacement

Fighting drugs can lead to population displacement with adverse environmental consequences:

• Eradication may force migrants to even remoter areas, causing further ecosystem harm. In Afghanistan, eradication in Helmand only pushed poppy cultivation North, causing soil depletion similar to what happened in Helmand previously.
• Conversely, successful eradication in Bolivia and Colombia sometimes led to less cultivation space without farmers relocating, allowing forests to reclaim previously used areas.

Drug Trafficking (X): Violence and Other Social Impact

Given the criminal nature imposed by prohibition, drug trafficking has a close relationship with diverse forms of violence:

• Types of Violence: Psychopharmacological violence (effects on users); economic violence (users’ attempts to secure resources); and systemic violence (struggles to control the business).

Systemic Violence

Systemic violence is the most destabilizing factor, leading to state-wide challenges in places like Mexico or Central American republics. Drug trafficking does not have a linear relationship with its development:

• Latin America: 30% of homicides are drug-related.
• South-East and East Asia: 2% of homicides are drug-related.

The reason appears to be the more decentralized business model in South-East and East Asia.

Intersection with Terrorism and Insurgency

The dimension of systemic violence most dangerous is where drug traffic intersects with terrorism and insurgency:

• Afghanistan (1994–2008): A 25% increase in poppy cultivation correlated with 0.15 more terrorist attacks and 1.43 more homicides. This was not the strongest factor overall.
• Colombia: The drug business was the main funding source for guerrillas fighting the government, leading to the nickname “narco-guerrillas.”

Caution is needed: an analysis (1998–2005) showed that only 9% (35 out of 395) of terrorist organizations studied engaged in drug trafficking.