Geopolitical Dynamics: Conflicts, Autonomy, and Theory

Posted on Mar 7, 2026 in International Relations

1. Understanding Frozen Conflicts

A frozen conflict occurs when active fighting stops but no peace treaty resolves the political dispute, leaving the conflict unresolved and unstable. Post-Soviet frozen conflicts include Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.

Characteristics

These conflicts feature:

  • Unresolved sovereignty
  • Ongoing tension
  • Implicit or external involvement
  • Risks of renewed fighting

Separatists control territory de facto but lack wide recognition, and conflicts often have ethnic, national, or ideological roots.

External Actors and Motivations

Russia is involved in all these conflicts, providing military, political, and economic support to separatists while officially mediating negotiations. Russia benefits by slowing NATO/EU expansion and maintaining influence in the region.

Why They Remain Frozen

Conflicts remain unresolved to preserve Russian leverage, prevent integration of these states into Western alliances, and maintain instability that can be used strategically.

2. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)

Founding

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was established in 1992 after Kurdish autonomy was achieved in northern Iraq. It functions almost as an independent state, possessing its own:

  • President and Prime Minister
  • Parliament
  • Flag and Anthem
  • Army (Peshmerga)
  • Airports and Education System

Kurds Gaining Power

Kurdish unity and political representation under the KDP and PUK allowed the KRG to consolidate authority. U.S. support during and after the Iraq War strengthened their position, especially in the fight against ISIS.

The Peshmerga

The Peshmerga are Kurdish armed forces, divided between the KDP and PUK, responsible for defending Kurdistan. They played a key role in capturing Saddam Hussein in 2003 and remain crucial to regional security.

Global Chokepoints

The six major chokepoints critical for global oil and trade are:

  1. Strait of Hormuz – Persian Gulf to Indian Ocean
  2. Strait of Malacca – Indian Ocean to Pacific Ocean
  3. Suez Canal – Mediterranean to Red Sea
  4. Bab el-Mandeb – Red Sea to Indian Ocean
  5. Bosphorus – Black Sea to Mediterranean
  6. Panama Canal – Atlantic to Pacific

International Relations Theories

Realism

Realism focuses on the idea that states are the main actors in an anarchic world, where no central authority exists. States act primarily to maximize power and ensure their own survival. Security and military strength are prioritized over ideals or morality, and international politics is often a struggle for dominance.

Liberalism

Liberalism emphasizes cooperation, institutions, and rules. States can work together through organizations like the UN or trade agreements to achieve mutual benefits. Peace is possible through economic interdependence, democracy, and international law, rather than just military power.

Constructivism

Constructivism argues that ideas, beliefs, norms, and identities shape state behavior. Unlike realism or liberalism, it focuses on how states define their interests based on social interactions and shared understandings, rather than purely on material power. Culture, ideology, and international norms matter.