Foreign Policy Analysis: Theories and Models

Posted on Jun 27, 2024 in Social sciences

Foreign Policy

Definition

1. The goals that a nation’s officials seek to realize abroad, the values that give rise to them, and the means or instruments used to pursue them.

2. Foreign policy is the sum of official external relations conducted by an independent actor (usually a state) in international relations.

Vallès Public Policy

Public Policy styles are categorized based on two variables:

  1. Whether the initiation of a policy is reactive or anticipative.
  2. The relationship between the main actors (consensual or imposed).

Policy Styles

  • Anticipative-consensual: Traditionally identified with the politics of Sweden and Japan.
  • Reactive-consensual: Observed in UK politics, after wide previous consultation between several actors.
  • Anticipative-imposed: …
  • Reactive-imposed: Economic shock policies, adopted by governments after an unexpected crisis.

The characteristics of the political structure and political culture influence the content and form of public policy elaboration. Several factors intervene in this process, including the institutional framework, political party system, and cultural values.

Foreign Policy Decision-Making (FPDM)

We can identify diverse variables (explanans) to analyze FPDM:

  • Small groups dynamics: In high-level FP decisions, the group of decision-makers is usually small: no more than 15 people.
  • Leadership style.
  • Internal bureaucratic/organizational context: Agents vs. agency.

Determinants of a State’s Foreign Policy Actions

  • Material attributes
  • Bureaucratic structures
  • Economic structure
  • Socio-cultural structure
  • Historic experience
  • Individual
  • Internal politics

Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) Theoretical Toolbox

  • What states want (IR theory): Preference formation (system-level and state-level actors).
  • Decision-making (FPA: RAM/BPM/IAM): Understanding the choice situation and making decisions.
  • What states do: Foreign policy output (security, diplomacy, economic policies).

Constructivism

Contributions to FPA

  • Understanding bureaucracies and interests.
  • Understanding decision-making (bargaining and arguing).
  • Understanding the interaction between the international and domestic levels of analysis (e.g., human rights).

Example: Role of NATO During the Cold War

NATO was a forum for establishing and cementing peaceful relations and new social relationships with new practices among the European member states. As a defense alliance designed to contain the Soviet Union, NATO’s foreign policy was understood as more than material capabilities and interest-based cooperation. It was also about the reconstitution of identities and shared knowledge, reinforced through security practices that facilitated a culture of anarchy based on friendship and cooperation, rather than rivalry.

Rational Actor Model (RAM)

The rational decision-maker chooses the alternative that provides the most preferred consequence. This model, primarily useful in explaining economic behavior, is attractive due to its parsimony and predictive power.

  • If diplomacy is preferred to sanctions and sanctions are preferred to the use of force, then diplomacy is preferred over the use of force.
  • Utility maximization: Actors will select the alternative that provides the greatest amount of net benefits.

Assumptions

  • The main actor is the unitary state.
  • Each unitary actor follows the logic of utility (utility maximizers) and rational choice.
  • The international environment determines state actions.

RAM is also about opportunity costs. Among other models, the rational model is the basis of game theory and Expected Utility Theory (EUT).

Rational Decision-Making Process

  1. Identify the problem.
  2. Identify and rank goals.
  3. Gather information.
  4. Identify alternatives for reaching goals.
  5. Analyze alternatives by considering consequences and effectiveness (costs and benefits) of each alternative and probabilities associated with success.
  6. Select the alternative that maximizes the chances of selecting the best alternative as determined in step five.
  7. Implement the decision.
  8. Monitor and evaluate.

Bureaucratic Politics Model (BPM)

In BPM, bureaucracies play an important role in foreign policy making and implementation. Unlike RAM, the main actor is not a unitary entity but rather a group of individuals inside the institutional structure of the state or a small group of decision-makers.

BPM generates outputs that structure the situation in which policymakers make decisions. These outputs include:

  • Information that bureaucracies provide to governments.
  • Foreign policy alternatives they present to the government.
  • Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that shape the state’s foreign policy.

In bureaucracies, individual interests play a significant role. For example, as each bureaucracy manipulates foreign policy in the direction corresponding to its particular interests, bureaucratic considerations may override the national interest.

Key Features of BPM

  • Players choose according to various factors, including national security, organizational, domestic, and personal interests.
  • BPM focuses more on processes internal to the state, rather than on interaction between states.
  • In BPM, foreign policy is the unintended result of a bargaining process involving the principal participants.

Culture/Identity

: Who are we, who are they, what do we do. Culture and identity can shape the differences in values and preferences in FP and FPM.