Fama-French Three-Factor Model vs. CAPM Risk Factors

Important Risk Factors in Asset Pricing

Industry Factor

  • FIndustry = RIndustry – RStocks: Stocks in the same industry are all exposed to industry-specific shocks (demand, prices, technology).
  • This implies stocks in the same industry tend to have higher correlations with each other.
  • Stocks in an industry will have a large beta with respect to that industry’s factor (BIndustry). Stocks in nearby industries will have moderate BIndustry, and stocks in unrelated industries will have zero BIndustry.

Size Factor

  • FSize = RSmall – RBig: Stocks for big companies are exposed to different risks than small stocks (e.g., small companies often require external capital more frequently).
  • This implies small stocks have higher correlation with each other, and big stocks have higher correlation with each other.
  • Small stocks have positive BSize; big stocks have negative BSize.

Value Factor

  • FValue = RValue – RGrowth: This factor reflects the difference in returns from two styles of investing: Value versus Growth.
  • Value Investing: Choosing stocks with cheap prices relative to measures of fundamental or accounting value.
  • Growth Investing: Choosing stocks projected to have fast growth in sales and/or profits.
  • Value stocks are exposed to different risks than growth stocks (e.g., technological innovation).
  • This implies value stocks have higher correlation with each other, and growth stocks have higher correlation with each other.
  • Value stocks have positive BValue; Growth stocks have negative BValue.

The Fama-French Three-Factor Model (FF3F)

Fama and French propose the following model as an alternative to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM):

E(Rj) = Rf + βm E(Rm – Rf) + βs E(RSMB) + βh E(RHML)

  • Rm: Market rate of return
  • RSMB: Return on Small Minus Big firms (Small-minus-Big factor)
  • RHML: Return on firms with High book-to-market ratios minus firms with low book-to-market ratios (High-Minus-Low factor)
  • βm: Market beta
  • βs: Beta on Small-Minus-Big factor
  • βh: Beta on High-Minus-Low factor

Interpreting Multifactor Models

The Fama-French three-factor model captures size and value effects. However, it does not fully explain why investors care about the common risks associated with small and value stocks.

Some argue that Value is related to expected returns not because it is related to risk, but because it is driven by mispricing.

Regardless of the underlying cause, both sides agree that pricing models are useful to characterize where returns come from, especially when benchmarking portfolio managers.

Multifactor models generally describe realized returns better than expected returns.

Applications of Pricing Models

Cost of Capital Estimation

CAPM vs. FF 3-Factor Model for Cost of Capital

CAPM:

  • Does not adequately explain expected returns, which is the primary purpose of determining the cost of capital.

Fama-French 3-Factor Model:

  • Does explain expected returns on average.
  • However, for individual stocks, beta estimates are noisy and can change over time—even more so than the CAPM (three estimates instead of one).
  • For cost of equity capital estimates, one might be better off attenuating beta toward 1.0. This approach:
    • In practice, fits better with E(r).
    • Avoids strategic gaming of the cost of capital.
    • Downside: Ignores differences in risk across firms.

Portfolio Performance Evaluation

CAPM vs. FF 3-Factor Model for Performance Evaluation

CAPM:

  • Does a reasonably good job of explaining realized returns.
  • Can explain past returns due to the market factor.
  • Has utility in portfolio performance evaluation.

Fama-French 3-Factor Model:

  • Does a better job of explaining realized market returns than CAPM.
  • Can explain market movements, value, and size effects.
  • It allows evaluation of how a manager performed while holding specific styles (e.g., value stocks or small stocks).
  • Nevertheless, there are even better alternatives available.