Demographic Evolution in Spain: A Comprehensive Analysis
Phase 1: High Stationary Phase
Traditional demographic regime: The birth rate and mortality rate were very high, both between 30% and 50%. Each woman had an average of 5 children, but infant mortality was high, and the population grew slowly. In these societies, the majority of infants and children died within a year, and very few reached the age of 7. Mortality was high, especially during times of bad harvests and epidemics due to the lack of sanitation and hygiene. In Spain, this phase lasted until the 20th century, particularly in the Spanish interior where fertility and mortality were very high.
Phase 2: Early Expanding Phase
Gradual mortality decline and population growth: The birth rate remained high, but mortality decreased, leading to progressive population growth. The causes of this were increased life expectancy, improvements in food hygiene, and advancements in healthcare. Spain entered this phase in the 1930s, but growth was halted by the Spanish Civil War. Fifty years after the war, the population in southern and central Spain continued to grow, especially among the young population who were forced to emigrate to more industrialized areas such as Catalonia, the Basque Country, Madrid, and industrialized countries in Europe and Latin America.
Phase 3: Late Expanding Phase
Population adjustment or readjustment: Mortality continued to decrease, but fertility dropped, causing the rate of population growth to decline. This resulted from economic and social reasons that led families, especially women, to begin family planning. Causes:
- Vaccines and other medical improvements increased the survival rate of young girls.
- Children were no longer seen as a help to family life and security for old age because child labor was prohibited, compulsory education was implemented, and retirement pensions were established.
- The incorporation of women into the workplace, accelerated urbanization, and successive economic crises delayed marriage.
Phase 4: Low Stationary Phase
Modern demographic regime or new demographic regime: Both birth and mortality rates are low, resulting in stagnant or zero natural or vegetative growth. There are increasingly more elderly people and fewer children. Life expectancy is around 80 years. This demographic regime is characteristic of highly developed societies. Spain has been in this stage in recent years, although there has been a slight increase in the birth rate in recent years.
3. Current Population Characteristics
Natural Movement of the Population
Birth rate: Birth rate = (Number of births in a year / Total population) x 1000 (or result in %). This demographic indicator measures the relationship between the number of births per year per 1,000 inhabitants. Modernization in Spanish society resulted in a decline in birth rates throughout the 20th century, from 33% (high) to 9% (low). In recent years, there has been a moderate rise due to women born in the 1970s (a period of tremendous population growth) reaching fertile age and the arrival of young immigrants.
Infant Mortality Rate: Deaths under one year in relation to live births. Infant Mortality = (Deaths under one year / 1000 live births) x 1000.
Marriage rate: Ratio of marriages to the total population. Marriage Rate = (Total marriages in a year / Total population) x 1000. Marriage can influence the number of inhabitants, as couples marry later and have children later, reducing the number of children per couple. This rate is unreliable due to the existence of many unmarried couples and single-parent families.
Fertility: Number of children a woman has during her fertile age (15-49). Fertility Rate = (Total births in a year / Total number of women between 15-49) x 1000. This measures the relationship between the number of births in a year and the female population of childbearing age per 1,000 people. The statistical fertile age for a woman is between 15 and 49 years. The synthetic fertility index or total fertility rate is the number of children a generation of women will have if they maintain the fertility rates observed at a given time. When the total fertility rate is less than 2.1 children per woman, it is not considered sufficient for generational replacement and vegetative growth, although growth may be replaced by immigration. If this index is less than 2.1, the younger generation does not guarantee replacement, and the population will decrease. If it is equal to 2.1, the population will remain stable, and if it is higher, the population will increase. In recent years, Spain has experienced a decline in fertility, currently standing at 1.4 children per woman, which does not guarantee generational replacement. Reasons for this decline:
- Women marry later and have children later, around 31 years old.
- The incorporation of women into the labor market delays the decision to have children.
- The difficulties young couples face in finding stable and well-paid jobs.
- Widespread use of contraception.
- Aging population.
Some European countries concerned about low fertility have implemented pro-birth policies, providing aid and social benefits such as free kindergartens and extended maternity leave. Policies undertaken by different Spanish governments have been very modest.