Democracy’s Rise: Key Factors in Post-Communist Transitions
Michael McFaul on Democratic Breakthroughs
Independent Electoral-Monitoring Capabilities
A fourth condition critical to democratic breakthroughs in Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine was the ability of NGOs to provide an accurate and independent tally of the actual vote quickly after polls had closed, to avoid any fraud.
A Modicum of Independent Media
A fifth critical element was the presence of independent media able to relay news about the falsified vote and to publicize mounting popular protests. For years, such media outlets and brave individual journalists had been reporting the misdeeds of semi-autocratic incumbents. At the moment of breakthrough, autonomous media remained vital in triggering change despite the incumbents’ last-ditch efforts to hang on to power.
Splits Among the “Guys with Guns”
A seventh and final necessary condition for success is a split among the “guys with guns,” meaning the state’s military, police, and security forces. A segment of these must distance itself far enough from the incumbents to show that the option of violent repression is risky if not untenable. In all three cases, such a split developed, though its size as well as the threat of violence varied from case to case.
A Semi-Autocratic Regime
All autocratic regimes are vulnerable to collapse at some point. Semi-autocratic or “competitive authoritarian” regimes are more open to democratization. In the post-communist world, every necessary regime had democratic procedures, such as elections, which have never been left aside. That allowed the opposition to form, which is a key aspect of a democracy since not every single person will agree on something. He gave the example of Milosevic, who never gave up elections. He also gives the example of Kuchma in Ukraine, who won through elections and wanted to have a managed democracy.
An Unpopular Incumbent
A second necessary condition for democratic breakthroughs in all of these countries was the falling popularity of the incumbent leader. This meant that people were not liking their current leader due to certain things they had done. McFaul gives examples of how these incumbent leaders were losing popularity due to war and other factors. This allowed for people to choose their own leader right after their current leader lost popularity among its citizens.
A United Opposition
Unity before elections was necessary because the opposition was going against their current leader. It is necessary for a democracy to emerge because if there is no opposition, there is no competition, as mentioned in McFaul’s text. In any kind of presidential election, there should always be an opposition in order for a democratic breakthrough to occur. We can see how that happened with the Serbian opposition in the reading when they chose the correct leader to go against the incumbent leader. The opposition’s capacity to mobilize significant numbers of protestors to challenge the falsified electoral results is crucial.
Dollar and Easterly on Foreign Aid
- Dollar: For foreign aid, it is only effective if there is institutional reform; it must be selective.
- Easterly: Against foreign aid, it is not effective; foreign aid is a bureaucracy, a “cartel of good intentions.”