Core Concepts in Scientific Methodology and Epistemology

Definition of Methodology

Methodology is the science that analyzes the way other sciences analyze science. It can be understood as meta-logos, meaning ‘above science’.

Types of Methodologies

• General: Focuses on commonalities (about identity) across all sciences.
• Specific: Examines differences in sciences, recognizing that not all methods can be used in all scientific fields.

The Methodenstreit Debate

This debate concerns the unity of scientific methods:

1. Monists: Claim there is a single methodology for all sciences, suggesting that sciences largely employ the same methodology.
2. Dualists: Argue that a single methodology cannot be applied to every science.

Goals of Science

• Practical: To improve the quality of life.
• Theoretical: To seek truth and understanding.

Instrumentalism vs. Realism in Methodology

This debate centers on the role of explanation and prediction in scientific theories.

Example: Predicting the Croatian exchange rate. A model might be good at predicting (e.g., 9 out of 10 times) but may not have a single, clear explanatory method within it.

• Realism: Theories should explain the world, and the relations and theories themselves are accurate representations of the world’s state.
• Instrumentalism: As long as theories are good at predicting, they are accepted, and we are satisfied with this minimal achievement of the goal.

Defining Knowledge

Knowledge is often defined as justified true belief.

Scientific vs. Other Types of Knowledge

• Knowledge: Information, understanding, or skill acquired from experience, rational thought, or education.
• Scientific Knowledge: Knowledge that is tested or learned through systematic thinking or practice. It is characterized by being critical, precise, and logically rigorous.

Hard vs. Soft Sciences

The primary difference lies in the possibility of conducting controlled experiments:

• Hard Sciences: Typically natural sciences (e.g., physics, chemistry). They are often causal, focusing on cause-and-effect relationships (‘How come?’). They can often employ controlled experiments.
• Soft Sciences: Typically social sciences (e.g., sociology, economics). They often explore reasons and motivations (‘For what reason?’). Controlled experiments are generally more difficult or impossible to conduct.

Understanding Controlled Experiments

A controlled experiment is one in which everything is held constant except for one variable being tested.

In economics, we often deal with statistical effects, where variables are not controlled one by one but measured collectively.

Positive and Normative Economics

• Positive Economics: Describes and explains ‘how things are’ (empirical). It focuses on factual statements and predictions.
• Normative Economics: Prescribes ‘how things should be’. It involves value judgments and policy recommendations.

The Problem of Induction

The problem arises when attempting to make universal rules based on a small sample, which may not hold true for all instances or future generations. Induction often lacks a sufficiently large sample to draw universally valid conclusions.

• Confirmation (Proof): Often associated with non-empirical and formal sciences, using modus ponens.
• Falsification: Characteristic of empirical science, often employing modus tollens (which works well in addressing induction’s limitations).

Popper’s Demarcation Criterion

According to Karl Popper, the criterion of demarcation between science and non-science is falsifiability. If a theory or hypothesis can be empirically tested and potentially proven false, it is considered scientific.

Hypotheses vs. Theories

There is no fundamental difference in kind between hypotheses and theories. A theory may encompass many hypotheses. The primary difference lies in their structure and scope:

• A single theory should be internally consistent.
• Individual hypotheses should be consistent within the broader theory.

Ontological Subjectivity of Social Facts

Social facts are ontologically subjective because their existence depends on collective intentionality and acceptance. Examples include the status functions created by declarations, such as a degree, the role of a president, or the relationship of a wife and husband.

Confirmation of Empirical Theories

No, an empirical theory can never be definitively confirmed. It can only be accepted temporarily until evidence emerges that might lead to its rejection.

Internal and External Consistency of Theories

• Internal Consistency: When its hypotheses do not contradict each other.
• External Consistency: How well the theory represents or aligns with the real world.

Types of Variables

Variables can be classified as:

• Nominal
• Ordinal
• Cardinal

Induction and Deduction: Pros and Cons

• Deduction:
  • Advantage: The conclusion is logically certain if the premises are true.
  • Disadvantage: It does not generate new knowledge beyond what is contained in the premises.
• Induction:
  • Advantage: Offers the ability to gain new knowledge and make generalizations.
  • Disadvantage: The conclusion is never 100% certain, even if the premises are true.

Definition of an Argument

An argument is a structure where a conclusion is derived from a set of premises.

Understanding Modus Tollens

Modus Tollens is a valid form of logical inference. It is an application of the general truth that if a conditional statement is true, then its contrapositive is also true. Specifically, if ‘P implies Q’ is true, and ‘Q is false’ is true, then ‘P is false’ must also be true.

Theory Consistency Revisited

• External Consistency: How well a theory represents the world.
• Internal Consistency: No contradiction among hypotheses within the theory.