Civilizations, Global Power Dynamics, and Regional Conflicts
Classification of Civilizations According to Huntington
Huntington’s classification divides the world into several major cultural and civilizational areas:
- Chinese-Confucian area
- Indian-Hindu area
- The Judeo-Christian West, further divided into:
- Slavic-Orthodox-Eurasian (post-Byzantine)
- Western (US, EU, Commonwealth)
- Latin American
- Islamic World, divided into:
- Arabs
- Turks
- Indo-Pakistanis
- Africans
- Southeast Asians
- Japanese-Shinto nation-civilization
- Black-African area (divided into Muslim and non-Muslim, e.g., Sudan, Nigeria)
- Buddhist Asia-Pacific area
Africa and Latin America: Weak Areas of the World?
These regions face challenges such as poverty, linguistic and ethnic diversity, and corruption. However, Africa’s economic growth rate is among the highest globally.
Middle East and Arab-Islamic World: “The Strategic Ellipse”
All Muslims agree that Muhammed was the prophet of God (Nabi). Controversy erupted within the Muslim community upon the Prophet’s death regarding who would inherit the mantle of Islam.
The Sunnis (Ahl al-Sunna, meaning “people of the tradition”), who form 80% of the global Muslim population, supported a leader from Mecca’s powerful tribe (Moawiyya). The Shiites believed that leadership should have remained within Muhammed’s family, specifically with Ali.
Shiites (the faction of Ali) lost to the Sunnis, who held greater military power. The conflict, rooted in this succession dispute, began in 632 AD and continues today, evidenced by battles in places like Karbala and Najaf. Except for Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, most Muslim-majority countries are ruled by Sunnis. However, 20% of Pakistan’s population is Shiite.
Alaouites, Druze, Ismailis, Alevis, and Zaidis are heterodox communities originating from Shiism but are often viewed as unbelievers or apostates by Sunnis.
Pro-Sunni Factions
These include the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Sunni-Arab states, and NATO. There are four main schools of Islamic jurisprudence within Sunni Islam:
- Hanbali (extreme)
- Shafi’i (strict)
- Maliki
- Hanafi
Pro-Shia Factions
These include Iran, Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and are generally opposed to Saudi Arabia, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the West (NATO). They often align with China and Russia.
Conflict: Iran vs. Saudi Arabia
After the Iranian Revolution, relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia deteriorated significantly. Iran accused Saudi Arabia of acting as a US agent in the Persian Gulf, prioritizing US interests over Islamic ones. Saudi Arabia is concerned about Iran’s desire to export its revolution and expand its influence in the region, particularly in post-Saddam Iraq and the Levant, as well as Iran’s controversial nuclear program.
Tensions have fluctuated over time. There was a thaw in relations after the 1991 Gulf War, and in March 2007, Iranian President Ahmadinejad visited Riyadh, where he was greeted by King Abdullah, and the two countries were referred to as “brotherly nations.”
However, Iran’s financial and military support for Syria during the Syrian Civil War severely damaged relations. In January 2016, Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran was ransacked following the execution of Saudi-born Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr. This execution led to widespread condemnation, and Saudi Arabia subsequently broke diplomatic relations with Iran.
The differing political ideologies and governance systems also contribute to the divide. Iran’s Islamic Republic is based on the principle of Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists, where a faqih (Islamic jurist) holds custodianship over all Muslim followers. Iran’s Supreme Leader is a Shia faqih. Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, opposed monarchy, considering it un-Islamic.
Saudi Arabia’s monarchy, on the other hand, is conservative and politically aligned with religious leaders who support the King as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, as long as he adheres to Islamic Sharia law. Saudi Arabia has a Shia minority that has voiced complaints of institutional discrimination, particularly after the 2007 change in Iraqi governance and the 2011 regional events.
According to the New York Times, the rift between the two countries appears wide and unbridgeable. The ongoing disagreement is further exacerbated by US sanctions on Iran, which have significantly impacted Iran’s oil industry, as reported by CNBC.
Gobierno (government), soberanía (sovereignty), soberano (sovereign)
Sufis
According to Mevlevi Sufism, traditional arts can be tools through which disciples can enhance their spirituality and draw closer to God. Sufis are often persecuted by radical Islamists.
Atatürk
Atatürk’s aim was to modernize Turkish life, instilling a new sense of dignity, equality, and happiness. He introduced numerous reforms, including:
- Women ceasing to wear the veil
- Replacement of the Arabic alphabet with the Latin alphabet
- Adoption of surnames by all citizens
- Replacement of the Islamic calendar with the Western calendar
- Abolition of the Caliphate
Syria’s Civil War
The Syrian Civil War is a conflict fought between the Syrian Arab Republic, led by President Bashar al-Assad and its allies, and various domestic and foreign forces opposing the government. It is currently the second deadliest war of the 21st century.
The unrest, part of the wider 2011 Arab Spring protests, grew out of discontent with the Syrian government and escalated into armed conflict after protests calling for Assad’s removal were violently suppressed. The war began on March 15, 2011, with major unrest in Damascus and Aleppo.
US-backed rebel groups are focused on toppling President Assad, while the US is primarily focused on defeating the Islamic State. Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah support Assad’s continued rule. Russia has primarily targeted rebel positions, including Jihadist and other Sunni rebels. The Islamic State seeks to unseat Assad and establish a caliphate extending beyond Syria’s borders.
China
Strengths
- Second largest GDP
- World’s largest military
- Nuclear weapons
- Seeks regional/global leadership
- “World assembly line”: 50% of goods are produced in China
- GDP between 1200 and 1300 billion USD
- Highly competitive
- Large internal workforce
- Multisectoral industrial skills (3rd most powerful industry worldwide)
Weaknesses
- Small middle class
- Aging population
- Extreme contrast between coastal, peripheral, and inland China
- Insufficiently developed infrastructure
- Serious pollution (coal) and deforestation
- Pandemics
- Energy dependence